Posted tagged ‘EU’

Divergence is around the corner

July 29, 2017

IMG_0212It is a good time now to update where the global trends are leading us to – how far can we see from here is the question. The one big change that seems to gain more strength is the political and economic divergence in interests of the USA and the EU. A couple of samples show this nicely: the German Chancellor Mrs. Merker has stated that Europe has to take its destiny into its own hands; the German minister of finance Mr. Schäuble stated that the joint European Army will be established at the latest by 2029; and the latest comes this week from Germany and the EU – Mrs. Merkel and Commission President Mr. Juncker announced that the EU will watch very carefully what kind of sanctions the US House of Representatives is setting on Russia, and if they violate unilaterally European firms in environmental or energy sector, the EU will not accept those and will retaliate – the earlier sanctions have caused EU companies around 90 billion Euros less exports to Russia that is more than US companies have suffered. The Trump administration has definitely given Europeans a wake-up call that has changed the thinking in Brussels and Berlin quite a bit. The economic super power EU will now bild up its military capabilities and definitely take more European stance on world affairs. The statement from Mr. Juncker was like this: Trump’s “America First” -policy cannot mean “Europe the Last”. On top of this the EU, Japan and China are forcing the global Free Trade and oppose the Trump administration’s aim at bilateral deals and protectionism which could lead even to isolationism of the USA down the road. My prediction remains the same as before – the power of Europe is underestimated, and when adding a very strong military and space capability to the economical power, it has already, Europe will become the major political, economical and military player on the global arena over the next 25 years, and might take the Western leadership role from the USA even faster. My hope was in tighter North-Atlantic relationships, but that has not happened, and it seems to be that now it is already too late for that – the USA is driving to another direction. There are large issues in the USA to be resolved from US National Debt of almost $20 trillion that equals $61.4 k per citizen,  US Foreign Debt of $6 trillion, growing Medic Aid spending already at over $1.1 trillion, increasing total taxation (Federal, State, City, Community) to the 15 % of population living below the poverty level. It might be that the USA has to focus on internal issues and will anyhow, independently of the Trump administration,  be playing a minor role on world affairs in the future.